lunes, 14 de abril de 2014

40 days until the revalidation of May, 25

The revalidation of May, 25 is a way to see the followers of the PP and PSOE parties, who
have  been  hardly punished,  but  also  to  know  if  IU  and  UPyD  have  been  as  popular  as  the
statistics say these latest years.
The PP goes to a dangerous meeting
The PP won the latest elections with 23 deputies in front of 21 of the PSOE. But now, they
are a bit scared because they think that the PSOE or IU are going to win. In addition, Rajoy and
the  members  of  his  party  are  disappointed  because  of  the  increment  of  the  PIT  (Personal
Income Tax) and the VAT (Value Added Tax).
Their  fear  is  because  the  intention  to  vote  has  been  reduced,  and  they  might  lose  the
European, Local, Regional and even the General elections. That could break the party.
However, Rajoy doesn’t want to think that he is at the beginning of his administration’s end, so
they  have  already  decided  who  will be sent  to  the  European  Parliament,  Miguel Arias Cañete, current Agriculture Minister.
The PSOE: new thinking to the elections
It’s the party which has the biggest expectations for the European Parliament. They said that
it is a great opportunity to show that they had changed. They also added that they need
the  vote  of  the  women,  but  the  European  elections  are  not  very  determinant  for  Spanish
people. However, that has started to change and now we are realizing that the things that
are decided there influences here directly.
They are waiting for their victory: the oligopoly of the two most important parties may have
disappeared.  It  is  in  the  best  moment  of  their  history,  and  it  aspires  to  be  the  only  left
alternative. There will be from five to seven euro-deputies.
UPyD: growing up alone
To UPyD, the European elections are a great aspiration of forming new governments.
The difference between UPyD and IU is that UPyD wants to grow alone. This is the reason of
why they refused offers of collaboration with Ciutadans or Vox.
The party has increased in the latest years: from one deputy to three or five.

José Ibarra Alonso


In Brussels, they don´t want to be deceived, they fear that they won´t be able to collect the debt that countries bailed out by the European Union contracted. They have to face it and take realistic measures that are good for all parties.
Greece has received two rescues since 2010 amounting to 240,000 million euros and a third of 15000 or 20 billion is expected.
The Greek situation was reviewed in 2010 and triggered a cascade of rescue: Ireland 85,000 million, 78,000 million Portugal and Cyprus with 10,000 million.
In total 400,000 million in public assistance. An amount contributed mostly by Europe as the result of the solidarity contribution of community partners.
Spain benefited in 2012 from a credit line of 41,300 million, repayable in easy installments until 2026, this came when the situation in Spain became really hard with its highest unemployment rate in history now.
Valid for future validation Bankruptcy, Rajoy's government may approve measures, which would encourage companies deleverage and reduce debt in exchange for equity.
But the key to the vault is to recognize if Greece will be capable of paying what is due and taking a public debt of 317,000 million euros, 176% of its annual GDP after 21 quarters of recession that has caused a drop of 25% and a decrease of 40 % in the economy of families.
Spain has much at stake in bailouts, exactly 32.067 million euros, representing, for example, unemployment benefits for a year, or the money for ministries in the budget of 2014.
The risk is 8.000 million loans in cash, especially in Greece, Ireland and Portugal because it poses too much risk.
The Ministry of Economy does not discriminate the contribution to bailouts for countries.
It doesn’t remove the specter still present in Brussels, though. Two years ago investors were already victims of a cut back of 53 % before the second bailout.
Economists like Jose Carlos Diez, are not so clear about that and insist on Greece leaving the euro and reinventing their economic, political and social model, although that could be a point of no return.

Sandra Gómez Barceló